Haziran ay\u0131 enflasyonunun piyasa tahminlerinin alt\u0131nda gelmesi, TL varl\u0131klar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pozitif bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 sundu. Ayl\u0131k bazda %1,37, y\u0131ll\u0131kta ise %35,05\u2019e gerileyen T\u00dcFE, dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin s\u00fcrmekte oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, TL \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 ge\u00e7ici de olsa hafifletti. Dolar\/TL kuru, haftay\u0131 39,70\u201339,90 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ge\u00e7irirken, enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket g\u00f6zlense de bu hareketin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rlerin deste\u011fi kritik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yurt i\u00e7inde enflasyondaki bu gerileme, hem beklentileri \u015fekillendiriyor hem de TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131na alan a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle son d\u00f6nemde i\u00e7 talepteki yava\u015flama, uzun vadeli faizlerdeki gerileme, CDS primindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve rezervlerdeki toparlanma, Temmuz ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Piyasa art\u0131k, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda kademeli indirimlerle politika faizinin %35\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak, Temmuz\u2019da do\u011falgaz zamlar\u0131 ve \u00d6TV ayarlamalar\u0131, bu s\u00fcrecin \u00f6n\u00fcnde k\u0131sa vadeli riskler olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel cephede ise dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc, ABD\u2019nin ticaret politikalar\u0131 ve Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik siyasi bask\u0131larla \u015fekilleniyor. ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 stratejik ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 Asya geneline yayma \u00e7abas\u0131; Vietnam, Hindistan gibi \u00fclkelerle yeni ticaret d\u00fczenlemeleriyle ivme kazan\u0131yor. Bu durum, k\u00fcresel ticaret zincirlerini yeniden \u015fekillendirirken piyasalarda dalgalanma riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Di\u011fer yandan, Trump\u2019\u0131n vergi\/harcama plan\u0131 ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019a y\u00f6nelik siyasi bask\u0131lar, para politikas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki belirsizli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Bu ba\u011flamda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi, faiz indirimi beklentilerinin \u015fekillenmesinde kilit rol oynayabilir. Zay\u0131f veriler, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke kurlar\u0131na destek verse de TL\u2019nin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle bu avantaj s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, dolar\/TL kurunda k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Parite 39,90 seviyesini tekrar test ederken, bu b\u00f6lge \u00fczerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k 40 psikolojik direncini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. \u00d6te yandan, y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 durumunda 39,83 destek seviyesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Kurun bu seviyeler aras\u0131nda kalmaya devam etmesi, piyasada bir denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, enflasyondaki iyile\u015fme TL taraf\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli bir rahatlama sa\u011flasa da, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir de\u011ferlenme i\u00e7in hem i\u00e7erdeki para politikas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n hem de d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki jeopolitik ve ekonomik risklerin uyumlu \u015fekilde seyretmesi gerekiyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde, i\u00e7eride TCMB\u2019nin faiz karar\u0131, d\u0131\u015far\u0131da ise ABD verileri ve ticaret politikalar\u0131 TL\u2019nin seyrinde belirleyici olacak. Kurda k\u0131sa vadede 39,75\u201339,90 band\u0131nda y\u00f6ns\u00fcz dalgalanma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Haziran ay\u0131 enflasyonunun piyasa tahminlerinin alt\u0131nda gelmesi, TL varl\u0131klar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pozitif bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 sundu. Ayl\u0131k bazda %1,37, y\u0131ll\u0131kta ise %35,05\u2019e gerileyen T\u00dcFE, dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin s\u00fcrmekte oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, TL \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 ge\u00e7ici de olsa hafifletti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finans"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":105,"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103\/revisions\/105"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/openprime.co\/\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}